| Understanding our Stats Gear is more than just covering our privates, it's the stats that make it so important. If you want to understand more about what Warlocks go for, have a look at the information posts inside! |
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Published by Warpy
June 10, 2008 |
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June 10, 2008, 11:00 AM
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#1 (permalink) |
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Character Info
Malevevely 70 Undead Warlock KJ US PvP |
Re: How Much Crit % to Switch from Affliction to Destro?
Generally people use 25% as a benchmark for going destro because of the isb uptime not just the dps. At 25% theoretically you can maintain 100% uptime, 1/4 of your bolts will crit with 4 charges your looking at always maintaining 100% uptime for yourself and others as long as the charges are not being eaten by other casters. With 100% isb uptime destro will surpass aff by a lot as it is a 20% shadow damage buff. Before this benchmark destro can do more dps and damage then aff however aff will give more raid utility. |
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June 10, 2008, 01:02 PM
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#2 (permalink) |
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Character Info
Purebalance 80 Human Warlock Muradin US PvE Guild: Shadowraven Profile: Blizzard Armory Talent Spec: 0/50/21 |
Re: How Much Crit % to Switch from Affliction to Destro?
But the thing is that isn't quite how crit works so the theory is very flawed. With 25% crit chance you could have 10/10 shadow bolts crit or 0/0. Crit chance and hit chance are like targets. I'll use some pretty simple, but accurate descriptions here: Since most people agree it's a 2 roll system for casters we'll take it that way and say there are 2 targets with 2 concentric circles on the ground and you're dropping a penny at it from a tall building. The first target is the hit target. All casters at level 70 with 0 hit rating have a 13% chance to miss a level 73(boss). So you have a big circle(hit) and a little circle(miss/resist). No matter what you do, the little circle will ALWAYS be there vs a boss because you cannot remove the final 1%. The big circle gets bigger as you have more hit and the little circle gets smaller. As long as you hit the big circle(a roll other than that 1% if you're spell hit capped) your spell is going to hit. Then we move to crit. This time the smaller circle will be the chance to crit and the larger is the normal hit. With 25% chance to crit, your chance to not crit(big circle) is still 3 times larger which is obvious but you need to think of it in statistics not in normal numbers. Your probability to crit will remain the same no matter how many shadow bolts you cast(unless you have that one darkmoon card of course). So every time you cast a shadow bolt the odds of getting a crit are still stacked against you. This is why you see people who invest in crit having just crazy dps one day and average dps another day. It's all just pure luck. Even spell hit capped you could technically have 5 resists in a fight if you're just unlucky. |
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June 10, 2008, 01:18 PM
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#3 (permalink) |
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Re: How Much Crit % to Switch from Affliction to Destro?
Its that age-old theorycraft vs real world again. At what point does Ruin theoretically surpass UA? Exactly what Malevely said...is that flawed? No, not in the slightest as a theory - mathematical analysis has shown that to be the case and what you're actually arguing about is simply that we are, as players, subject to the whim's of chance....unless there's a point you forgot to make beyond that? Edit: Sorry - that sounded a little confrontational. Its nice to provide an illustration of the hit/crit mechanics but I guess we're all aware how subject we are to those two little rolls and how much they can actually impact your DPS......and all we can do is suffer the inequities of fate in this case and keep spamming shadowbolt 
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Lefric - 80 Rogue Theleb - 70 Warlock Celegorm - 70 Hunter Kahlye - 70 Shaman - Gaerun 62 Paladin - Weldrake 80 Death Knight Last edited by Theleb; June 10, 2008 at 01:29 PM.. |
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June 10, 2008, 01:34 PM
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#4 (permalink) | |
Status: Newly Registered User
Character Info
Warpy 80 Human Warlock Kul Tiras US PvE Profile: Blizzard Armory Talent Spec: 53/0/18 |
Re: How Much Crit % to Switch from Affliction to Destro?
Quote:
Actually, the above is from my blog, and the first thing I looked at, in an earlier post, was ISB. At 25% spell crit, a warlock has just under 70% uptime, but the slope of the line (the relationship between spell crit and ISB uptime) is decreasing, marking diminishing ISB returns for stacking spell crit. If you are interested, please check out my blog and feel free to comment! http://wowmb.net/forums/blogs/warpy/61-power_improved_shadow_bolt.html To Pure Balance: For one fight, I agree that chance is important, for crits, resists, interrupts, untimely deaths, you name it! But I use Markov (deterministic) rather than Monte Carlo (random-factor) models because I'm trying to think long-term here (hey, gems are expensive!). Across an entire raid, or multiple raids, the law of averages will come into effect, and the percentage of SB crits I get will look rather like my spell crit % (including talents), and the proportion of spell that hit rather than miss will look like my spell hit %.
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June 10, 2008, 01:45 PM
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#5 (permalink) |
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Character Info
Purebalance 80 Human Warlock Muradin US PvE Guild: Shadowraven Profile: Blizzard Armory Talent Spec: 0/50/21 |
Re: How Much Crit % to Switch from Affliction to Destro?
But you actually aren't then if you think that 25% crit means 1 in 4 shadow bolts is theoretically going to be a crit. The way most people are taking it is,"If I cast 3 shadow bolts that aren't crit then 100% chance my next one is." And that is how it's explained which is completely wrong. Which is also why people's actual crit %'s are so far from their gear/talent chance %. Every time you cast you have X% chance to crit and that will never change. So any theory regarding that statement should never say X/X of your bolts will crit unless you have 100% chance to crit. Even mathmetically you cannot guarantee crits without the said 100% because math knows 2 things in the equation that the game knows as well: crit mechanics as I explained it(probability and statistics is a math) and how much of a chance you have to make the crit happen every time. I dont know how much more I can simplify it. The only thing theory can say about a 25% crit chance is, " 1 in 4 of your shadow bolts has a 25% chance to crit." Math and science cannot assume when making laws and theories aside from quoting a theory itself(typically when math or science tells you to assume they usually mean for you to accept a fact as you are still learning why that item is a fact) Also to warpy, if you're in any decent raiding guild you should be able to net at least 1 gem a week minimum through badges(I usually get about 8 badges per raid night) and then if you really wanted to, your guild can run a 2 hour kara(you're obviously in BT/MH) and net what another 22 badges? Gems shouldn't really be too much of a concern as you progress further. Just a thought. Last edited by Pure Balance; June 10, 2008 at 01:52 PM.. |
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June 10, 2008, 02:00 PM
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#6 (permalink) |
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Re: How Much Crit % to Switch from Affliction to Destro?
No-ones labouring under any misapprehensions here PB - people are aware that theoretically their chance to crit might be TT'd as 25% but that doesn't mean 1 in 4 will do so.....why you persist in arguing to the nth degree without proposing a different set of workable statistics or a different ISB Model, or even a different set of results for Affliction vs Destro is quite beyond me to be frank. If your answer isn't 25% crit, please let us know what it is. 25% TT crit is actually also subject to some manner of reduction against level 73 bosses but its never actually been successfully measured or quantified. I did a little research on the subject (because, while I'm happy to accept 25% as the figure, I'm also curious as to the deviation over time given smaller samples) and wandered over to EJ. There's not a lot to work with but some of the maths that has yet to be refuted (not my own, I hasten to point out): Assuming you cast a lot of shadowbolts (will refer to what's "a lot" at the end), you can say that your # of crits has a normal deviation. Summing up a lot of shadowbolts, each shadowbolt has C chance to crit. Call X=1 if it crit and X=0 if it did not, and E(X)=C. Var(X)=E(X^2)-E(X)^2=C-C^2. Casting N shadowbolts, E(average crit over N bolts)=E(X)=C (obviously, on average with 20% crit rate casting 100 shadowbolts you'd crit 20). Var(average crit over N bolts) = Var(X)/N = (C-C^2)/N The deviation would be Var^0.5. For 100 shdowbolts and 25% crit rate, [(0.25-0.25^2)/100]^0.5=~5.6%, which means you have ~63% chance to have your crit rate between 19.4% and 30.6% if you only cast 100 shadowbolts. So getting 30% crit or 20% crit if you only casted 100 shadowbolts is very possible. To reduce the deviation to 1% with 25% crit rate you need to resolve: [0.1875/N]^0.5=0.01 0.1875/N=0.0001 0.1875=0.0001N N=1875 So if you cast less than 1875 shadowbolts expect to get at least 1% deviation in your crit chance with 25% crit. Not to mention even with 1875 shadowbolts you only have ~63% chance to be within 24% to 26% crit chance and still have some chance to be a bit further than that, however you have well over 99% chance to be within 22% to 28% if you cast 1875 shadowbolts. In other words, I wouldn't call "bug" unless your results are further than 3*deviation than the average. As for the "many shadowbolts", it's because everything here is an approximation that gets better and better the more shadowbolts you cast, however it would be rather close to the accurate deviations if you cast like 80+ shadowbolts with a realistic crit chance. Cast more and it gets more and more accurate for calculating the deviation. For calculating the deviation in a sample....: For a sample of where Which happily allows us to account for the deviation, but unhappily doesn't go any way towards addressing how much we actually lose vs higher level mobs. Anyway! this is somewhat tangential to the OP's original point, and I have yet to see any further alternatives vis a vis the point of inflection between Affliction and Destruction. As it stands, our often quoted 25% crit while hitcapped seems to hold up well.
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Lefric - 80 Rogue Theleb - 70 Warlock Celegorm - 70 Hunter Kahlye - 70 Shaman - Gaerun 62 Paladin - Weldrake 80 Death Knight Last edited by Theleb; June 10, 2008 at 03:12 PM.. |
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June 10, 2008, 05:32 PM
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#7 (permalink) |
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Character Info
Malevevely 70 Undead Warlock KJ US PvP |
Re: How Much Crit % to Switch from Affliction to Destro?
I agree with you that the 25% model is flawed PB however like theleb said it is the best model we have unless we can determine a different number through a more complex calc I am inclined to go with the age old, if simplistic theory of 25% crit is ideal for isb uptime. |
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June 10, 2008, 05:53 PM
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#8 (permalink) |
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Character Info
Purebalance 80 Human Warlock Muradin US PvE Guild: Shadowraven Profile: Blizzard Armory Talent Spec: 0/50/21 |
Re: How Much Crit % to Switch from Affliction to Destro?
I'm not doubting that at the stated gear level that due to ruin and a certain crit chance destruction should provide better dps. The end result is essentially the same, but a lot of the calculations are based on the presumption that for ISB uptime you're getting 1 in 4 shadow bolts. Please don't make me say I have neither the time nor inclination to go and find an actual number because I usually tend to do it anyway after I say that(naked or not as in the case of the 2 cloaks on that one post) Given the time and the effort you've seen I can produce a case for many things. I sometimes even support a case that I don't stand behind just for the other parties involved to actually learn why their own side is right(if you ever teach a debate class you'll learn why you sometimes have to give your stronger people a weaker side to support because given it's strongest support, a weak side forces the overrall correct side to fully undoubtably support itself in order to set things in the right. Much rather get people thinking than just let it be done for them. Although 90% of the time you seem to trail after me and I know you have a good head on your shoulders and will think for yourself so really it just becomes a point and counter point. But yeah back to the crit thing, since you were calling my other example a real raid situation if I wanted to give a real raid example in lay man's terms it would be something to the extent of "we all know it's a 50/50 chance to get heads or tails on a coin, but in flipping a coin 100 times it's more one or the other seems to come ahead by a decent margin" (see also your reply above) Anyway the OP actually was saying that the dps itself is increased at a lower time and then the counter point was made that it was due to ISB uptime we choose 25%. And that was where the 25% crit even if you're the only shadow spell user will not give 100% ISB uptime even with using mathmatical theory. No math can assume when your crit will come even if you do get the 25% of your total crits since even 25% actual crit could all happen in chains and then have other periods of non crit. A lot of this is all really not that important though anymore when it comes down to it because isn't ISB only non periodic damage now or something? Or is that something just proposed? Anyway weekdays are not as good for my brain as the weekend as sitting at a microscope all day then going to the gym then moving to a computer at home then adding in numbers tends to hurt the brain(and the eyes) As a side note, do you think that 75% of the people on here will understand what is there? I don't know you well enough to say if you do but judging by the banter we've had I feel safe in assuming you do. Like I said you seem to be smarter than the average bear :-P(mmmmm picnic baskets) |
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June 10, 2008, 06:43 PM
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#9 (permalink) | |
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Re: How Much Crit % to Switch from Affliction to Destro?
Quick reply, in the middle of arena atm a) Yes, non-periodic damage. That Makes me sad in the face. b) The damage did indeed increase at a lower %, but not significantly (100dps or better) until we approached crit ratings around 25%. So......while you can spec Destro with lower crit its not worth it (unless you're really keen) until I would say at least 18% TT. The ISB uptime is harder to calculate (so many variables) but Leuliers is actually as good a model as I've seen just yet. Do I think 75% of the people understand that stuff? Yes....but I would guess less than 10% actually care "that" much about our nitpicking with reference to tiny points - I just like people to get both sides of the coin....in this case we've got a lot of decent evidence from one source or another about the exact viability point of Destro, and also managed to show that small fluctuations over the course of an evening aren't enough to worry about given the median deviation in crit due to random chance and silly "level 73 crit reduction" mechanics which I still can't find a figure for. *** Information added 12 Minutes and 17 Seconds later... *** Quote:
Could be get an exact point? Yes, certainly but you'd need some manner of program or spreadsheet, or add-on to handle it if you wanted a constantly updated figure (taking into account Haste rating, crit rating, hit rating, number of shadow users, SP talents etc)...does Shadowseer still work?
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Lefric - 80 Rogue Theleb - 70 Warlock Celegorm - 70 Hunter Kahlye - 70 Shaman - Gaerun 62 Paladin - Weldrake 80 Death Knight Last edited by Theleb; June 10, 2008 at 06:40 PM.. |
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