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Old June 10, 2008, 08:00 AM  
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Warpy
80 Human Warlock
Kul Tiras US PvE
Profile: Blizzard Armory
Talent Spec: 53/0/18
How Much Crit % to Switch from Affliction to Destro?
Author: Warpy
Posted: June 09, 2008 02:13 PM

Quote:
Do I have enough crit % to switch from affliction to...
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Old June 10, 2008, 10:40 PM   #10 (permalink)

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Thrale
70 Undead Warlock
Blackrock US PvP
Profile: Blizzard Armory
Talent Spec: 0/21/40
Re: How Much Crit % to Switch from Affliction to Destro?

silly "level 73 crit reduction" mechanics? Is this true?? Like a resilience built into each boss?
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Old June 10, 2008, 10:45 PM   #11 (permalink)

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Theleb
70 Human Warlock
Shadowsong Euro PvE
Guild: Original
Talent Spec: 0/46/15
Re: How Much Crit % to Switch from Affliction to Destro?

Its true according to the EJ PVE Raiding Compendium thing. I haven't verified it personally having only stumbled on it this evening.
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Old June 12, 2008, 08:58 AM   #12 (permalink)

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Syhra
70 Blood Elf Warlock
Tortheldren US PvP
Profile: Blizzard Armory
Talent Spec: DP-Ruin
Re: How Much Crit % to Switch from Affliction to Destro?

Little late coming to the show but whatever...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pure Balance View Post
But you actually aren't then if you think that 25% crit means 1 in 4 shadow bolts is theoretically going to be a crit. The way most people are taking it is,"If I cast 3 shadow bolts that aren't crit then 100% chance my next one is." And that is how it's explained which is completely wrong. Which is also why people's actual crit %'s are so far from their gear/talent chance %. Every time you cast you have X% chance to crit and that will never change.
While this is true, statsically it is probable that over a series of fights or a very long fight you will see something like your crit percent. It is like flipping a coin. The more times you do it, the closer you get to a 50/50 ratio. Sure if you are killing something that goes down in 1 minute your crit might not even be close to you crit % but over the course of say a kara (sorry tier 4 instances+ZA are the extent of my raid experience) I'd imagine it looks a lot more like one would expect.

Just thought I'd add that. Someone smack me if I said something dumb here.
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Old June 12, 2008, 09:57 AM   #13 (permalink)

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Theleb
70 Human Warlock
Shadowsong Euro PvE
Guild: Original
Talent Spec: 0/46/15
Re: How Much Crit % to Switch from Affliction to Destro?

No you're right - the smaller the sample the larger the deviation. Its the reason why my spreadsheet-obsessed Shaman friend runs simulations where the time frame is year or so to get more accurate results.
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Old June 12, 2008, 10:26 AM   #14 (permalink)

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Debuff
80 Orc Warlock
Sargeras US PvP
Guild: Fenrir
Profile: Blizzard Armory
Talent Spec: 0/13/58
Re: How Much Crit % to Switch from Affliction to Destro?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thralock View Post
silly "level 73 crit reduction" mechanics? Is this true?? Like a resilience built into each boss?
Bosses have built-in unmitigable resistances which come from the fact that they are 3 levels about you. I have not heard anything about crit reduction but I have heard about innate resistances will will generally result in about 3% damage reduction do to partial resists.
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Old July 14, 2008, 03:40 AM   #15 (permalink)

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Angantyr
80 Undead Warlock
Thaurissan Oceania PvP
Guild: Devils Own
Profile: Blizzard Armory
Talent Spec: 56/0/15
Re: How Much Crit % to Switch from Affliction to Destro?

Sorry for my ignorance but I'm looking at making the switch to destro but don't know how much my Crit will be improved by with Ruin and the other talents. Right now with the proper gear my crit rating is 16.25%, don't want to waste 50g just to respec to find out so anybody have any idea what that'll take me to with the 0/21/40 build?
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Old July 14, 2008, 03:59 AM   #16 (permalink)

Re: How Much Crit % to Switch from Affliction to Destro?

the only talent that shows on tooltip is backlash... which is 3% fully talented

if you have 16% from gear alone ( reading tooltip) now then it should go up to 19% tooltip crit once you respec ( 16+3 =19 )

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Old July 14, 2008, 06:23 AM   #17 (permalink)

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Smørebrød
70 Undead Warlock
Die Aldor Euro RP PvE
Profile: Blizzard Armory
Talent Spec: 0/56/10
Re: How Much Crit % to Switch from Affliction to Destro?

which would mean you'd have 24% with ruin...
i switched to destro at 17% myself - and never had regrets.
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Old July 15, 2008, 02:13 PM   #18 (permalink)

Re: How Much Crit % to Switch from Affliction to Destro?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pure Balance View Post
But the thing is that isn't quite how crit works so the theory is very flawed. With 25% crit chance you could have 10/10 shadow bolts crit or 0/0. Crit chance and hit chance are like targets.

I'll use some pretty simple, but accurate descriptions here:

Since most people agree it's a 2 roll system for casters we'll take it that way and say there are 2 targets with 2 concentric circles on the ground and you're dropping a penny at it from a tall building. The first target is the hit target. All casters at level 70 with 0 hit rating have a 13% chance to miss a level 73(boss). So you have a big circle(hit) and a little circle(miss/resist). No matter what you do, the little circle will ALWAYS be there vs a boss because you cannot remove the final 1%. The big circle gets bigger as you have more hit and the little circle gets smaller. As long as you hit the big circle(a roll other than that 1% if you're spell hit capped) your spell is going to hit. Then we move to crit. This time the smaller circle will be the chance to crit and the larger is the normal hit. With 25% chance to crit, your chance to not crit(big circle) is still 3 times larger which is obvious but you need to think of it in statistics not in normal numbers. Your probability to crit will remain the same no matter how many shadow bolts you cast(unless you have that one darkmoon card of course). So every time you cast a shadow bolt the odds of getting a crit are still stacked against you. This is why you see people who invest in crit having just crazy dps one day and average dps another day. It's all just pure luck. Even spell hit capped you could technically have 5 resists in a fight if you're just unlucky.
What his math does in consider an average over many fights; in that case, it is accurate, and reflects the real world. Sure, in one fight even at 25% crit the Destro 'lock may actually crit 50% of the time, or 10% of the time. The model doesn't reflect that, but it was not meant to, and it is not necessary to consider small numbers of fights when asking the question 'At which point does %crit cause Destro to out-damage Aff?'

The model may well be flawed, but not for the reason you are suggesting.



ETA - My statement was made several times before in this post, in various ways, but I'm going to be redundant and let it stand. The big thing I would like to say is this: If the model is flawed, then show us a better model. Show us better assumptions, mathematically, and demonstrate that they give different results.

*** Information added 45 Minutes and 1 Seconds later... ***

I think there is a flaw or 2 in this model. First, it only considers 1 target. This is fine for most Boss fights, but what about the entire Raid DPS? If a good Aff 'lock DoTs up multiple mobs in each pull, will that balance out the loss of DPS in the comparison of the fight with the Boss? I think this is one reason a few Aff 'locks claim they can out-DPS a Destro 'lock, all else being equal. the Destro 'lock can't effectively damage more than 1 mob at a time, while the Aff 'lock can, and should, be hitting several. (I realize here that the scenarios are very situational and hard to calculate an average for.)

Second, what is optimum gearing for the Aff 'lock? Surely, he/she would not gear for crit, so other things would be higher - +damage in this case, maybe even +haste. If the Aff 'lock gave up 5% crit, that would mean 110 crit points. Spent in damage would give the Aff 'lock +110 damage over an equally geared Destro 'lock, is that enough to make up for the crit loss and bonus to damage the Destro 'lock gets? Again, one would have to look at all the gearing possibilities to see whether or not +25% crit compared to +110 damage with +20% crit were possible, and the rest of the gear similar, but wouldn't this also help explain why an Aff 'lock might 'try out' Destro and say his DPS dropped, he/she re-geared for crit and lost too much damage?

Surely someone has mathematical models, can anyone point the way?


Last edited by FelGuardian; July 15, 2008 at 02:23 PM..
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Old July 15, 2008, 03:10 PM   #19 (permalink)

Character Info
Lylie
70 Human Warlock
Demon Soul US PvP
Guild: Paradigm
Profile: Blizzard Armory
Talent Spec: 0/21/40
Re: How Much Crit % to Switch from Affliction to Destro?

An interesting thing I'd like to add about the being hit capped part besides the obvious is that your spell hit actually affects your spell crit chance, at least according to the formulas on wowwiki.

You can have 25% crit but if you have 0 hit (83% chance to hit a boss)

.25*.83 = 20.75 is your actual crit percentage.

I thought this was important to show to people who think that hit is a negligible stat when starting and insist on being destro. Stacking crit will gimp yourself more tremendously then you think.
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