The Warlocks Den - WoW Warlock Discussions

Originally Posted by Pure Balance

But you actually aren't then if you think that 25% crit means 1 in 4 shadow bolts is theoretically going to be a crit. The way most people are taking it is,"If I cast 3 shadow bolts that aren't crit then 100% chance my next one is." And that is how it's explained which is completely wrong. Which is also why people's actual crit %'s are so far from their gear/talent chance %. Every time you cast you have X% chance to crit and that will never change.

Originally Posted by Thralock

silly "level 73 crit reduction" mechanics? Is this true?? Like a resilience built into each boss?

Originally Posted by Pure Balance

But the thing is that isn't quite how crit works so the theory is very flawed. With 25% crit chance you could have 10/10 shadow bolts crit or 0/0. Crit chance and hit chance are like targets.

I'll use some pretty simple, but accurate descriptions here:

Since most people agree it's a 2 roll system for casters we'll take it that way and say there are 2 targets with 2 concentric circles on the ground and you're dropping a penny at it from a tall building. The first target is the hit target. All casters at level 70 with 0 hit rating have a 13% chance to miss a level 73(boss). So you have a big circle(hit) and a little circle(miss/resist). No matter what you do, the little circle will ALWAYS be there vs a boss because you cannot remove the final 1%. The big circle gets bigger as you have more hit and the little circle gets smaller. As long as you hit the big circle(a roll other than that 1% if you're spell hit capped) your spell is going to hit. Then we move to crit. This time the smaller circle will be the chance to crit and the larger is the normal hit. With 25% chance to crit, your chance to not crit(big circle) is still 3 times larger which is obvious but you need to think of it in statistics not in normal numbers. Your probability to crit will remain the same no matter how many shadow bolts you cast(unless you have that one darkmoon card of course). So every time you cast a shadow bolt the odds of getting a crit are still stacked against you. This is why you see people who invest in crit having just crazy dps one day and average dps another day. It's all just pure luck. Even spell hit capped you could technically have 5 resists in a fight if you're just unlucky.